The National Association of Realtors is predicting that “existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009. The aggregate existing-home price should decline 1.2 percent in 2008 to a median of $216,300, and then rise 3.2 percent to $223,200 in 2009.”

This, of course, is all fun and fantasy. No one knows what will happen in the future, certainly a lot of bright people did not predict the current housing downturn, otherwise their employing banks and stock brokerages would not have blown through billions of dollars.

For seniors, the core issue is home value. You want home values to rise faster than inflation so that equity grows and buying power increases. Then, if a sale or reverse mortgage is of interest, you have a bigger asset to market or finance.

NAR adds the following predictions:

*The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise slowly to the 5.9 percent range in the fourth quarter, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009.

*“Affordability conditions are anticipated to rise 14.2 percent this year, permitting more people to become homeowners, but buyers should avoid aggressive lenders and not over-stretch to enter the market,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise from 113.0 in 2007 to 129.0 in 2008.

*Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at 2.2 percent in 2008 and 2.7 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate should rise to 5.4 percent in the second half of 2008 before averaging 5.2 percent in 2009.

*Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 2.7 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.7 percent in 2008 and 3.5 percent next year.

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